ForeSea – Planned activities

Planned activities

ForeSea activities will be separated into two themes

• “Catalyzing transformative ocean prediction science solutions for sustainable development, connecting people and ocean prediction” and
• “Increasing  impact and relevance: Improving science and science capacity for the ocean we want”

which will be realized through UN Decade projects to make ocean prediction science impactful and relevant.

Theme 1 will cover: 

1. Integrated forecasts of ocean hazards with socioeconomic forecasts to quantify impacts and guide policy and management for preparedness, mitigation and restoration
2. Community description of historical ocean conditions (i.e. reanalysis) at high resolution
3. Improved forecasts for extreme events (tropical cyclones, harmful algal blooms, oil spills, etc.) to address “safety of life at sea” considerations
4. Maximizing the impact and value of observations –  see supporting document in section 41 on the proposed project entitled “Synergistic Observing Networks for Impactful and Relevant Ocean Predictions (SynObs)”
5. Guiding the evolution of ocean observing systems based on scientific assessment of their impacts and efficiency in ocean predictions – also included in SynObs
6. Capacity building and training
7. Contribution to a digital ocean
   • Optimizing user value
   • Coordinated approach for digital ocean and digital atmosphere

Theme 2 will cover:

1. Advancing use of ocean prediction technologies in weather and climate predictions, including use of earth system models (ESMs) and coupled data assimilation techniques
2. Coupling of open ocean systems with coastal/land systems (partnership with CoastPredict)
3. Development of limited area ESMs with appropriate coupling between the meteorological, hydrological, ice, and ocean components, to serve as test-beds to address the above issues, to improve model predictability and provide more reliable forecasts in the ocean component (collaboration with CoastPredict)
4. Extending the forecast range and ensemble approaches

Activities covering Theme 1 and 2:

1. Improved descriptions of surface and near-surface ocean conditions
2. Development of an integrated description of the 4D biogeochemical state of the ocean based on satellite and in situ observations that informs society on key issues related to ocean health and the management of marine resources (to be carried out jointly with the development of a global BGC Argo array)
3. Biogeochemical (BGC) nowcasts and ecological forecasting as area for transformative progress addressing from stakeholder needs ranging from carbon accounting to ecosystem health
4. Integrated short-term and sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions in the coastal zones (including probabilistic products) that can assist institutional and private services towards sustainable management of marine resources, preparedness and response to hazards, marine safety and search and rescue operations (collaboration with CoastPredict)