ForeSea

ForeSea’s vision is for strong international coordination and community building of an ocean prediction capacity for the future. The overarching goals are to (1) improve the science, capacity, efficacy, use, and impact of ocean prediction systems and (2) build a seamless ocean information value chain, from observations to end users, for economic and societal benefit. These transformative goals aim to make ocean prediction science more impactful and relevant. ForeSea has received five project submissions to the latest Calls for Decade Actions and is currently assessing their suitability for endorsement by the Ocean Decade and their fit within ForeSea.

SynObs

SynObs, the Synergistic Observing Network for Ocean Prediction is proposed as a common comprehensive UN Decade project among the three UN Decade programmes, ForeSea, CoastPredict, and Ocean Observing Co-Design. SynObs seeks to extract maximum benefit for ocean and coastal predictions through combining various observation platforms, typically between satellite and in situ observation data or between coastal and open ocean platforms. SynObs aims to identify the optimal combination of different ocean observation platforms through observing system design/evaluation, and to develop assimilation methods with which we can draw synergistic effects from the combination.

CoastPredict

CoastPredict is one of three GOOS Ocean Decade Programmes (besides CoastPredict, the GOOS UN Decade programmes includes ObsCoDe and Observing Together), that share the vision of a co-designed, integrated observing and forecasting system, linking the coastal and open ocean.

CoastPredict is developing core projects under six focus areas to optimise capability and capacity for integrated coastal forecasting, and to enhance service delivery. Amongst priorities, projects will address the need for calibrated, relocatable climate downscaling to add coastal resolution to IPCC climate scenarios and improve projections of ecosystem impacts at local scales. CoastPredict will consolidate standards and best practices to replicate integrated forecasting systems as part of a truly global ocean observing system.

ObsCoDe

GOOS’s Ocean Observing Co-Design Programme aims to transform ocean observing system assessment and co-design processes by working with experts in observations, modelling and forecasting, and with key user stakeholders, to develop tools and best practice. The processes must be developed collaboratively with modelling and observing communities to enable co-design of an integrated and responsive ocean observing system. Co-design will be piloted through Exemplar areas, a key to which will be identification and engagement of end-users and understanding of their needs.

The OceanPredict community is warmly invited to take part in the virtual Co-Design Workshop on 7, 8, 9 June 2022.

—   Registration is now open (until 19 May 2022).  —

CP-TT: The CP-TT is being re-organized and revamped after a long overdue meeting. It was agreed that CP-TT will strive to link coupled (ocean) modelling, predictions, and operational implementation. An important element of this new plan is to coordinate a few projects that would enhance sharing of

knowledge and information across different OceanPredict Systems and task team member organization. A quarterly lecture series is also planned and would start sometime around May 2022. CP-TT will support and co-organize a workshop with OSEval-TT around Nov 2022.

(Santha Akella, Kristian Mogensen and Chris Harris, CP-TT co-chairs)

MEAP-TT: After serving as MEAP-TT co-chair since 2014, Katja Fennel has stepped down from this role. Marjy Friedrichs from the Virginia Institute of Marine Science has agreed to become the new co-chair of the MEAP-TT, serving together with Stefano Ciavatta. MEAP-TT got fully involved in the OceanPredict initiatives for the UN Decade of Ocean Science, with the co-chairs joining

the steering committee of the ForeSea Programme and SynObs project. The team co-authored to the Biogeochemical Modelling chapter of the ETOOFS’ Guide to Operational Oceanography and Forecasting Systems which is to be launched at the UN Ocean Conference in Lisbon in June. The next video-meeting of the MEAP-TT is scheduled for May 2022.

(Stefano Ciavatta and Marjy Friedrichs, MEAP-TT co-chairs)

IV-TT: The IV-TT ongoing activities (next year and beyond) will focus on the publication of reports and papers on existing Class-4 metrics and the evolution of the of the existing Class-4 framework. The IV-TT also plans to develop efforts, potentially in the form of

projects in support of the UN Decade of Ocean Science, including working closely with the other OceanPredict task teams, providing reliable guidance on systematic errors and model improvements to the operational oceanography expert community and end-users, and propose, promote and re-visit metrics and standards with bodies in charge of routine evaluation.

(Fabrice Hernandez and Greg Smith, IV-TT co-chairs)

UK/Europe: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) uses the NEMO ocean model to produce coupled forecasts for time ranges from medium-range (15 days) to over extended range (62 days) to seasonal range (up to 13 months). To generate ocean initial conditions, we use the NEMOVAR variational data assimilation system.

Current ocean modelling and data assimilation activities are focused on upgrading the NEMO model version from V3.4 to V4.0 and upgrading the NEMOVAR system to a more recent version. It is expected that a new ocean reanalysis will be available in 2023 with an upgrade of the coupled modelling systems expected in 2024.

(Kristian Mogensen, ECMWF)

Norway: New Arctic Biogeochemical forecast at 6 km resolution: Since May 2021, daily biogeochemical forecasts for the Arctic are provided using the ECOSMO II model, coupled to the HYCOM v2.2.98 at 6km resolution and 50 vertical layers. The 10-days forecasts are initialized every day and assimilate satellite ocean colour data.

New extension of the stand-alone neXtSIM-F forecasts: Since Dec 2021, the stand-alone sea ice forecast model neXtSIM-F has had an extended domain: it covers the Arctic and now the Canadian Archipelago. The neXtSIM-F model provides 7-days forecast updated every day. Both the ECOSMO-II and neXSIM-F forecasts are available through the Copernicus Marine Services (search for ECOSMO or neXtSIM).

(Laurent Bertino, NERSC)

China: NMEFC’s  global ocean forecasting system based on NEMO with 1/12 degree horizontal resolution has been operational for 2 years and can provide temperature, salinity, currents, sea surface height products. Global reanalysis system has been set-up by NMDIS with 1/12 degree horizontal resolution and covering 1989-2020.

In 2021, Indian Ocean sub-system based on NEMO (v4.0) is updated to 1/24 degree horizontal resolution and in the quasi-operational stage. For the Northwest Pacific Ocean sub-system, a 10km-grid, 5day SST forecast is developed by using the ConvLSTM deep learning method; with meteorological forecasting data and SST remote sensing observation, the average absolute error of 24-hour for the SST predictions from intelligent forecasting system is less than 0.2 ℃.

(Guimei Liu/Dakui Wang, NEMFC)

Brazil: The Brazilian Oceanographic Modeling and Observation Network (REMO) developed a short-range operational ocean forecasting system for the Atlantic Ocean, which has been upgraded since its implementation in 2010. The system, hosted by the Brazilian Navy Hydrography Center (CHM), comprises the REMO Ocean Data Assimilation System (RODAS),

based on EnOI, and HYCOM nested grids forced by NCEP/NOAA GFS and CHM COSMO forecasts. RODAS assimilates along-track sea level anomalies from AVISO, sea surface temperature analyses from the UK MetOffice OSTIA and Argo T/S profiles. Today, efforts are underway to construct an EnKF and to assimilate SWOT altimetry data.

(Clemente Tanajura, UFBA/REMO)